The wait is nearly over: the results of England's teaching excellence framework (TEF) are set to be published on 14 June.

Several leading universities are bracing themselves for bad news: around?one-fifth of institutions are expected to receive the lowest ¡°bronze¡± rating in the state-backed league table for teaching quality, with the University of Bristol, London School of Economics and King¡¯s College London thought to be among the Russell Group members at risk of falling into this category.

A ¡°mock TEF¡± exercise, conducted by?³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ?in June 2016 and based upon metrics around graduate employment, student satisfaction and retention, similar?to those considered by the TEF assessment panels, predicted that small campus universities and post-92s would be among the strongest performers.

However, in addition to metrics, universities will be judged on the 15-page narratives which they supplied earlier this year to the ³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ Funding Council for England. These will allow for an institution¡¯s classification to be upgraded based upon the arguments put forward, although any such shifts may come under some scrutiny if those with low metrics scores are propelled into a more respectable category based on special pleading.

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¡°They have left themselves some room so that a candidate that looks bronze on paper can be bumped up to a silver,¡± explained Nick Hillman, director of the ³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ Policy Institute, who said it was possible that there will not be a single ¡°gold¡± university ¡°in the whole of London¡±.

The key question is whether the TEF influences student choice via the creation of a new elite of institutions based on teaching quality. On this, Mr Hillman is unconvinced.

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¡°If the LSE does not do amazingly well, it is still the LSE ¨C one of the premier places in the world to study social sciences,¡± he said. ¡°Its name and reputation for research excellence will trump any negative press it gets from the TEF,¡± he added, although he cautioned that the ¡°middle tier¡± of Russell Group universities might have a harder time explaining away a bronze.

John Latham, vice-chancellor of?Coventry University, who said he would be ¡°disappointed if we didn¡¯t get gold¡±, believes that the TEF will be a powerful tool for attracting students who are currently required to ¡°drill down¡± into numerous league tables to make a decision on teaching quality.

¡°The TEF simplifies other measures that already exist ¨C students want something that is more simplified,¡± said Professor Latham.

Don¡¯t expect ¡°gold¡± universities to be shy about advertising their new status either, he added, despite some acknowledging widespread reservations about the TEF¡¯s methodology.

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¡°As a brand it will be important and those who get gold will put it front and centre ¨C why wouldn¡¯t they?¡± Professor Latham said.

Paul Hayes, pro vice-chancellor (education and student experience) at the?University of Portsmouth, which is also expecting gold, said the TEF results would ¡°bring a new dimension¡± to university rankings and help?institutions?to tell positive stories about their teaching to a wider audience.

¡°It will help us to communicate some of the great things that we already know about ourselves ¨C that we are extremely good at teaching ¨C?as we will have a measure that backs us up,¡± said Professor Hayes.

jack.grove@timeshighereducation.com