The number of people applying to UK?universities for 2024-25 by?the main January deadline has fallen for the third year in a row, according to figures, as?experts warn that the sector¡¯s ¡°chickens are coming home to roost¡±.

There are some concerning signs both domestically, with the country more reliant on?18-year-old applicants than ever, and internationally, with falls in?undergraduate recruitment from key markets including India and Nigeria.

shows that a total of 594,940 applicants applied to UK courses by the equal consideration deadline of 31?January ¨C down 0.3?per cent on the year before, and the third successive drop.

The application rate for UK 18-year-olds fell to 41.3?per cent in 2024 ¨C down from 41.5?per cent in 2023, and the lowest level since before the pandemic. The total number of UK 18-year-old applicants was 316,850, up 0.7?per cent year-on-year.

³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ

And the Ucas figures, which reflect the ¡°weakening demand¡± seen in the number of early applications, suggest that the sector is more dependent on this segment than ever.

Of UK applicants, two-thirds (66.1?per cent) came from 18-year-olds ¨C up from just 53.4?per cent a decade previously.

³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ

Nick Hillman, director of the ³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ Policy Institute, said the softening demand from home school-leavers was ¡°very worrying¡±, likely reflecting the challenges faced by school pupils during Covid-19, the cost-of-living crisis for students and ¡°endless questionable claims¡± about university no longer being worth?it.

¡°Now, the chickens are coming home to roost, regrettably,¡± he added.

The data reveals worrying signs for low-tariff providers, with applicants favouring elite institutions more than ever.

Across the sector, 44?per cent of all applications went to high-tariff providers ¨C up slightly on 2023 levels and the highest since comparable figures began in 2006. Likewise, a record low 26.7?per cent were to low-tariff providers.

The number of UK applications to low-tariff providers dropped a little, but those from international students, particularly from outside the European Union, declined by a lot more.

Mr Hillman said the figures shine a light, yet again, on the ¡°inconsistencies in the government¡¯s approach¡±, having long underfunded universities for home students and simultaneously encouraged them to recruit more international students.

¡°Yet when institutions did exactly what the government wanted them to do, ministers then cracked down on international students,¡± he?said.

¡°The end result is that some universities ¨C the most prestigious ones ¨C remain protected against falls in demand from abroad while others are more badly affected.¡±

³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ

The total number of international students applying rose by almost 1?per cent to 115,730 ¨C the second highest level on record ¨C with the number of Chinese applicants rebounding after last year¡¯s dip.

³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ

However, demand from Nigeria fell by 46?per cent, while other large markets also saw drops, including Italy (down 14?per cent), Hong Kong (10?per cent), Pakistan (10?per cent) and India (4?per cent).

The Ucas figures are for undergraduates only, so would not be directly affected by the government¡¯s recent ban on master¡¯s student bringing in dependants.

Nevertheless, Vanessa Wilson, chief executive of University Alliance, said the significant drop in applications from countries such as Nigeria spoke to the negative impact of recent government policy and rhetoric.

¡°If international students continue to feel ostracised from a UK university education, we will essentially be holding the door open for global competitors such as Australia and Canada, who will reap the economic benefits international students bring,¡± she said.

Mark Corver, managing director of data and analytics at the consultancy dataHE, said that following a big fall in 18-year-old application rates last year, the 2024 data was ¡°always going to be critical to the sector¡±.

¡°There will be some superficial relief from the number of UK 18-year-olds applicants being up, rather than down, but the increase is far too small to reassure on the health of demand for university,¡± he?said.

Dr Corver said there was some uncertainty over the size of the 18-year-old population and suggested that the fall in the application rate might be larger than suggested in the Ucas data.

¡°With the future recruitment health of the sector projected to rest on continuing the decades-long trend of rising young demand, this will be of deep concern to universities,¡± he?said.

¡°It may not be a coincidence that young applicants, particularly in England, have had tough times in university admissions recently, with success rates ¨C especially first choice ¨C falling and hitting lows not seen for over a decade. Awarded grades have been falling, too, as has the rate at which unsuccessful applicant have another?go.

¡°These knocks may be taking their toll on confidence of young people of getting what they want.¡±

Dr Corver suggested that universities would need to accept more applicants to get entry rates back on trend.

³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ

¡°For selective universities, this might mean straining to accommodate as much of that demand as the loss-making economics allow. For other universities, this might mean maximising certainty for this low-confidence cohort by confirming their place and accommodation early in the cycle,¡± he said.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com