Delays in striking a Brexit agreement?may leave the UK outside the European Union¡¯s multibillion-euro research programme when it starts in 2021, while a no-deal exit could see British researchers excluded for the?entire duration of Horizon Europe, sector leaders have warned.

The possibility that the UK could leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement and a statement of intent on future trade relations?has been given an extra edge recently, with Westminster-Brussels talks?hitting their rockiest period yet and Conservative Brexiteers intensifying their criticism of Theresa May¡¯s strategy.

The UK¡¯s membership of the?current Horizon 2020 programme means that British universities benefit from about ?1.2 billion a year in funding, the ability to join international research consortia funded by the programme and eligibility for highly prestigious European Research Council grants.

Ms May has said that the UK ¡°would like the option¡± to become an associate member of Horizon Europe, the next seven-year framework programme, in exchange for a?fee expected to be between €1 billion (?884 million) and?€2 billion a year. But a no-deal Brexit could derail that. And even with a deal, there are fears that an association agreement may not be in place for the start of Horizon Europe in 2021.

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Michael Arthur, president of UCL, said that any application by the UK for associate membership in research after a no-deal Brexit ¡°would then be occurring against the background of more political difficulty¡±. There would be no guarantee that an association agreement would be reached ¡°and it would probably take a lot longer¡± to reach one, he said.

There would be a ¡°significant gap¡± in the UK¡¯s framework programme participation of ¡°probably as much as a year¡± in such a scenario, Professor Arthur continued.

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But he also warned that ¡°a gap could occur even if there is an agreement¡± between the UK and the EU on the wider Brexit deal.

Kurt Deketelaere, secretary general of the League of European Research Universities, agreed, pointing out that the proposed €94 billion (?83 million) budget and rules of Horizon Europe are yet to be finally agreed in the European Parliament, and a UK-EU association agreement would take ¡°easily a year¡± to negotiate and draft after that.

¡°Even if the UK were able to associate to the framework programme, they would potentially miss the start of the programme,¡± he said. ¡°This is¡­something that UK universities will have to take into account.¡±

Ms May has also said that the UK wants ¡°a far-reaching science and innovation pact with the EU, facilitating the exchange of ideas and researchers¡±.

But Richard Lochhead, Scotland¡¯s higher education minister, highlighted that it was ¡°increasingly likely that the UK government will need a wider agreement around the next European Union multiannual financial framework [the EU¡¯s overall budget] with the European Commission before it can make a deal on a wider science and innovation accord¡±.

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¡°A deal on the science and innovation accord will need to be closed before an agreement on association with Horizon Europe and other key programmes can be put in place,¡± Mr Lochhead added.

UK universities are stepping up their contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit in light of the increasing political uncertainty.

Professor Arthur, who said that UCL has a Brexit mitigation group, highlighted damage to recruitment and retention of EU staff and students as being among key potential impacts of a no-deal Brexit.

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While it is widely expected that in the future, EU students will face the same full fees as non-EU students and no longer have access to UK government loans, Professor Arthur said that a deal with the EU would allow potential fee rises and loss of loan access to come in ¡°after the end of the implementation period¡±, giving ¡°time to adjust¡±.

Sir Anton Muscatelli, principal of the University of Glasgow, said that his institution was ¡°trying to prepare as an individual university¡± for the potential outcomes of no-deal Brexit ¡°and I believe others are also engaged in intensive planning. However, it¡¯s important to stress that not all risks of a ¡®no-deal¡¯ scenario can be fully mitigated. For instance, risks to imported supplies and travel disruption cannot be avoided.¡±

Professor Deketelaere highlighted further cause for UK concern about Horizon Europe in the stance taken by one of the two European Parliament rapporteurs leading talks on shaping the programme¡¯s rules, Romanian MEP Dan Nica.

Mr Nica, seen as pushing for eastern European nations to gain a bigger share of research funding, has proposed an amendment to the European Commission¡¯s plans that would see associated countries excluded from the pillar of Horizon Europe?that includes ERC grants.

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Professor Deketelaere added of the prospects for UK association: ¡°As long as we don¡¯t have clarity over Brexit, as long as we don¡¯t have approval for Horizon Europe, things cannot move ahead.¡±

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com