Students had less impact on the outcome of this year¡¯s UK general election than expected, according to the ³ÉÈËVRÊÓƵ Policy Institute.

The ¡°most striking example¡± was in Loughborough, where Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, won the 16th?biggest increase in the Conservative vote despite being vulnerable to an average pro-Labour swing in the student-heavy constituency, Hepi says.

The report, published on 15 October and written by Nick Hillman, Hepi director, is a follow-up to the thinktank¡¯s pre-election report on student voting behaviour.

The pre-election report forecast that students could determine the outcome in about 10 constituencies.

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But the follow-up report says that students had ¡°less impact on the election result in the seats Hepi identified than was expected¡±.

Mr Hillman identifies three reasons: a stronger than expected Conservative performance in holding marginal seats with large numbers of students; a collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote ¡°so dramatic¡± that marginal Lib Dem seats with high numbers of students would have fallen regardless of the student vote; and the ¡°limited electoral impact¡± of Labour¡¯s election pledge to lower tuition fees to ?6,000.

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Only one of the six Tory seats Hepi forecast might shift from Conservative to Labour because of the student vote actually did change hands (Lancaster and Fleetwood).

¡°In all the Conservative seats expected to fall to Labour as a result of students¡¯ voting behaviour (including the one they lost), [the Conservatives¡¯] vote share increased,¡± the report says.

On the Lib Dems, Mr Hillman notes that the eight MPs who survived included four who voted against higher fees and four who voted for them. The ¡°slim¡± difference in vote share between the two groups ¡°seems surprising, especially given¡± the National Union of Students¡¯ ¡°Liar, Liar¡± campaign aimed at unseating MPs who broke their pre-2010 election pledge to oppose tuition fee increases, he adds.

The switch to Individual Electoral Registration ¨C meaning universities no longer registered students ¨C ¡°did not have as much negative impact on students¡¯ propensity to vote as had been feared, but it continues to pose a challenge¡±, the report adds.

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In a foreword to the report, John Denham, former secretary of state for universities, says the amount of unregistered students ¡°cannot be healthy¡± for the democratic process.

john.morgan@tesglobal.com