UK universities should brace for ¡°short-term pain¡± in international recruitment as student mobility trends look set to slow, according to a new report, but it will benefit in the long term.

The British Council found that challenges including?changes to migration policy?and increasing costs of UK study will mark the end of the post-Covid boom in international student mobility.

Its suggests that growth in new enrolments of international students will slow across the four major host destinations in 2024 ¨C Australia, Canada, the UK and US ¨C as markets revert to the steady but unremarkable long-term growth rates that preceded the pandemic.

The UK was found to be at the forefront of the post-Covid bounce back, with the issuance of study visas returning to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2021, earlier than any other major host destination country.

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But inbound student mobility could decline in 2024 for the first time since the pandemic due to a combination of mostly cyclical headwinds.

The British Council says this year is expected to be a ¡°transitional year¡± for UK universities, as they adjust to slower growth rates and rising competition, but it is a natural correction that will put the UK back on its long-term pre-Covid growth trajectory.

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In response to the position of ¡°short-term pain, long-term gain¡± the UK finds itself in, it urges the sector¡¯s focus on student recruitment to shift from quantity-based metrics to quality-based ones.

The report also highlights that a strong pound in 2024 could put the cost of UK education out of reach for some international students. This will be felt most acutely in emerging economies such as Nigeria, Pakistan and Ghana, as well as in some of the developed markets of east Asia.

Meanwhile, the report warns that the re-emergence of the US education market presents increased competition for the UK, with early data suggesting that the US will increase its share of international student enrolments in 2024.

Despite this, it found international student recruitment in the UK to be strong, with the country taking in 11 per cent of all inbound international students in 2023.

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And researchers say that the greatest uncertainty hanging over the long-term direction of the US education market is ¡°politics, not policy¡± ¨C with this trend heavily dependent on the outcome of the country¡¯s presidential election in November.

Maddalaine Ansell, director of education at the British Council, said: ¡°UK education undoubtedly remains well positioned for long-term success due to its strong foundations and a reputation for world-class quality.

¡°The British Council will continue to engage with the UK higher education sector, students, agents and influencers worldwide to ensure the UK continues to recruit highly qualified international students from across the globe and enables the exchange of learning and ideas and the formation of partnerships that benefit individuals, institutions and wider society.¡±

British Council researchers found that east Asia appears relatively well positioned for growth in 2024, especially from China.

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China¡¯s economy has not recovered as quickly from the end of the zero-Covid policy in late 2022 as many had expected, and with young people most affected?an increasing numbers of students are still motivated to enrol overseas, they said.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com