The Westminster government is expected to cap student numbers in England using outcomes measures currently under development, which include the proportion of graduates going into ¡°managerial or professional employment¡±, and to introduce a minimum entry requirement set at two E?grades at A?level.

The government is currently working on a response to its consultation, which closed on 6?May, on policy measures aiming to tackle its concerns over ¡°low value¡± university degrees.

Ministers aim to announce decisions before Parliament goes into recess on 21?July, sector sources suggested.

The consultation¡¯s proposal for a system of student number controls (SNCs) now appears likely to use the set of B3?registration conditions being developed by the Office for Students (OfS), the English regulator, which will set numerical baselines for the proportions of graduates going into ¡°managerial or professional¡± employment or further study and for continuation and completion rates, for each higher education institution and for its courses.

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Meanwhile, education secretary Michelle Donelan indicated in a recent appearance before MPs on the Education Committee that the government would set a?minimum entry requirement (MER) for eligibility for student loans at two E?grades at A?level or equivalent qualification. That would impact fewer potential students than a GCSE English and mathematics threshold, proposed as the main option in the consultation.

Gordon McKenzie, chief executive of GuildHE, one of the sector¡¯s two representative organisations alongside Universities UK, said: ¡°I think that they [the government] will pursue policies that try to increase the numbers taking level?4 and 5 courses [below degree level] and, in part, they will hope to encourage that growth by restricting the numbers of marginal students ¨C in the sense of those with lowest prior qualifications ¨C enrolling on marginal courses, in the sense of degrees with outcomes that are just above the B3 minimum standards.

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¡°So I would expect an MER of two?Es at A?level or equivalent, funding for foundation years reduced, and SNCs introduced in the name of quality but, as I say, implemented in the space just above the acceptable B3 level.¡±

Diana Beech, chief executive of London Higher and a former adviser to Conservative universities ministers, called such an idea ¡°concerning¡±.

¡°Not only are we still awaiting clarity from the OfS on whether these thresholds will be implemented as proposed, but this appears a desperate attempt to bring in SNCs through the back door following considerable sector pushback to proposals to link SNCs to students¡¯ prior attainment levels¡± via a minimum entry requirement, she added.

With London Higher analysis having suggested few institutions would escape some form of OfS scrutiny under the new conditions, ¡°SNCs linked to B3 measures could have the potential to curb student numbers on a range of courses right across the sector¡±, said Dr Beech.

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Chris Millward, former director of fair access at the OfS, now professor of practice in education policy at the University of Birmingham, said a minimum entry requirement ¡°will not encourage other routes as it will diminish their standing and make the full-time full-degree route even more popular. [It would be] better to invest in the other routes so they become more attractive, rather than force students into them.¡±

The government will also be responding to a separate consultation it launched on the planned lifelong loan entitlement (LLE).

The government, said Mr McKenzie, will ¡°need to decide what they¡¯re doing about the details of LLE, and I?would imagine that will be the most contested part of the whole reform package because of the potential increased costs which the Treasury will resist¡±.

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com