Just 16 per cent of UK higher education applicants¡¯ grades are accurately predicted, according to a new report that calls for change to a university admissions system that sees life-changing decisions made on ¡°inaccurate information¡±.

While disadvantaged students are more likely to have A-level grades over-predicted overall, among high-achieving applicants ¡°disadvantaged students are more likely to be under-predicted than their more advantaged counterparts¡±, says Gill Wyness, lecturer in the economics of education at the UCL Institute of Education, in a paper published by the University and College Union.

The UK is unique in having a university admissions system that relies on predictions of students¡¯ grades made by their schoolteachers.

Dr Wyness suggests that prediction accuracy could have ¡°a negative impact on the labour market outcomes of high ability but disadvantaged students, as well as potentially skewing the socio-economic mix" of highly selective universities.

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She adds that ¡°it seems highly inefficient to continue with a system in which life changing decisions are made, and scarce university places are allocated, on the basis of inaccurate information¡±.

Dr Wyness¡¯ research is based on ¡°bespoke data¡± provided by Ucas, the university admissions service, on applicants to higher education courses in the UK?for the 2013, 2014 and 2015 entry cycles.

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As well as finding that just 16 per cent of applicants¡¯ grades were accurately predicted among their best three A levels, Dr Wyness finds that a ¡°further 8.5 per cent of applicants were under-predicted, whilst the vast majority (75 per cent) of applicants¡¯ grades were over-predicted¡±.

Dr Wyness also says that applicants with the equivalent of AAB or better at A level ¡°tend to be more likely to be underpredicted than the average applicant, with 21 per cent of AAB applicants having their points score under-predicted, versus 8.5 per cent of all applicants¡±.

She adds: ¡°Among these AAB applicants, applicants from the most disadvantaged group are slightly more likely to have their grades under-predicted than those from the least disadvantaged groups (23.7 per cent v 20.3 per cent) suggesting there is some evidence that high ability disadvantaged students are particularly likely to fall into the category of being under-predicted.¡±

Dr Wyness also finds that ¡°high ability under-predicted applicants are less likely to apply to top universities (to the tune of 8.7 percentage points)¡±.

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Sally Hunt, the UCU general secretary, said: ¡°This report is a damning indictment on a broken system, not the hard-working teachers tasked with the impossible job of trying to make predictions.

¡°The results strongly support our call for a complete overhaul of the system, where students apply after they receive their results.¡±

Ucas had previously pressed for a switch to post-qualification applications, but abandoned the plan in 2012 in the face of opposition from schools and universities.

Mary Curnock Cook, Ucas chief executive, said of the UCU report: ¡°These proposals would reduce choice and put students from challenging backgrounds at further disadvantage.

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¡°It is not the case that only 16 per cent of predicted grades are right ¨C the correct interpretation is that only about 16 per cent of students have no net deviation at all from their predicted grades across three A-level results.¡±

john.morgan@tesglobal.com