The ¡°economic aftershocks¡± of the coronavirus could strip Australia of the equivalent of 14,000 full-time researchers, diluting its capacity for innovation when it is most needed, according to a taskforce chaired by chief scientist Alan Finkel and led by the Australian Academy of Science.

A ¡°¡± suggests the pandemic will erode Australia¡¯s research workforce on multiple fronts ¨C including university research, business research and development, medical research institutes (MRIs) and government research agencies ¨C with shocks to each sector exacerbating the damage to others.

For example, the report says the slump in business expenditure on R&D (BERD) will be ¡°an order of magnitude worse¡± than the downturn experienced during the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2009. It cites estimates that some 1,625 full-time research jobs were erased from private sector enterprises over the three weeks from mid-March.

Such impacts could be magnified by losses in the MRIs, which depend on commercial income and philanthropy as well as government grants, and face a revenue decline of between A$200 million (?105 million) and A$400 million over the next two years.

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Declining BERD could also jeopardise the ability of universities and MRIs to accept allocations from the A$20 billion Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF), which requires co-investment from other sources.

Meanwhile, plummeting international enrolments will strip billions of dollars from university budgets, consuming the co-contributions required for projects funded by industry, government and non-profit sources. International tuition fee revenue is also used to bankroll research salaries and facility costs, the report notes.

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Such problems will be compounded by the absence of some 9,000 of the 17,000 or so foreign research students who comprise more than one-third of Australia¡¯s doctoral students and are concentrated in science-related areas. Postgraduate students constitute 57 per cent of the university R&D workforce, the report points out.

The research activity of the equivalent of 24,000 full-time academics is also being constrained as universities jettison casual employees and foist more teaching responsibilities onto permanent staff.

The Australian Academy of Technology and Engineering, which led the report¡¯s production, said universities performed approximately 43 per cent of the applied research conducted in Australia. ¡°A decline¡­may limit economic growth by slowing the development of new technology, skills and efficiency gains in service and production processes,¡± warned CEO Kylie Walker.

The report is the sixth produced by the ¡°¡± since its inception in April. The forum brings together 15 learned academies, representative groups and scientific advisory offices in Australia and New Zealand to provide quickfire answers to pandemic-related questions posed by health, science and education ministers.

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The report says significant university job losses ¡°have not yet been realised¡± because institutions have so far cut costs elsewhere. But ultimately, at least 7,000 active researchers are among the 21,000 full-time equivalent university staff at risk of losing their jobs ¡°in the next six months alone¡±.

Such impacts could snowball, with Curtin University projections suggesting that at least 38 per cent of the 79,000-strong research academic payroll ¡°is at risk¡±.

Another 3,000 MRI positions could be lost ¡°over the next 12 to 24 months¡±, the report adds. While the federal government¡¯s JobKeeper employment subsidy programme could safeguard many of these jobs, universities¡¯ exclusion from the scheme ¡°will have a negative impact on some MRIs¡±.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com